Q4 2025 Regulatory Roundup & 2026 Outlook: What Turkish-U.S. Businesses Need to Know

The fourth quarter of 2025 was one of the most consequential periods for Turkish-U.S. business in recent memory. Against a backdrop of geopolitical realignment, shifting trade policy, and ongoing regulatory reform, businesses operating across both markets faced a complex and rapidly evolving compliance environment.

This roundup synthesizes the key legal and regulatory developments of Q4 2025 across tax, trade, immigration, corporate compliance, and financial regulation — and provides a forward-looking assessment of what Turkish-U.S. businesses should prioritize in 2026.

The U.S. corporate tax rate remained at 21% through Q4 2025, following the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. However, the political environment heading into 2026 creates significant uncertainty:

• The TCJA provisions affecting individual taxation are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, creating pressure for Congressional action
• Proposals to increase the corporate rate to 25–28% remain active in Democratic policy discussions
• The global minimum tax framework (OECD Pillar Two, 15% minimum) continued its implementation across OECD member countries, with implications for Turkish multinationals with U.S. subsidiaries

Action item for Turkish companies: Model the impact of potential corporate rate increases on U.S. subsidiary profitability. Review transfer pricing arrangements in light of Pillar Two implementation.

The expiration of TCJA individual provisions at year-end 2025 would result in:

• Top marginal rate reverting from 37% to 39.6%
• Standard deduction reverting to pre-2017 levels
• State and local tax (SALT) deduction cap of $10,000 expiring
• Estate tax exemption reverting from ~$13.6 million to ~$7 million per person

For Turkish high-net-worth individuals with U.S. assets or U.S. tax obligations: The potential reduction in the estate tax exemption is particularly significant. If the exemption reverts to ~$7 million, individuals who have not yet utilized their full exemption through gifting strategies face a narrowing window.

The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) and its Beneficial Ownership Information (BOI) reporting requirements under FinCEN continued to generate compliance activity in Q4 2025. Key developments:

• Reporting deadline: Most existing companies were required to file initial BOI reports by January 1, 2025. New companies formed in 2025 had 90 days to file.
• Court challenges: Multiple federal courts issued injunctions against BOI enforcement during 2024–2025, creating uncertainty. The Supreme Court's ultimate resolution of these challenges remains pending.
• Turkish company implications: Turkish-owned U.S. LLCs and corporations are subject to BOI reporting requirements. Beneficial owners (individuals owning 25%+ or exercising substantial control) must be disclosed, including Turkish nationals.

Action item: Confirm BOI filings are current for all U.S. entities. Monitor Supreme Court developments on CTA constitutionality.

The IRS continued to prioritize transfer pricing enforcement in Q4 2025, with particular focus on:

• Intercompany service arrangements between Turkish parent companies and U.S. subsidiaries
• Intellectual property licensing arrangements
• Cost-sharing agreements

Turkish companies with U.S. subsidiaries should ensure transfer pricing documentation is contemporaneous, robust, and consistent with arm's-length standards.

The tariff landscape for Turkish goods entering the U.S. remained complex in Q4 2025:

Section 232 Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Turkey remains subject to elevated Section 232 tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) exports to the U.S., with periodic quota negotiations. Turkish steel and aluminum exporters should monitor quota utilization and tariff exclusion opportunities.

Section 301 China Tariffs — Supply Chain Implications The ongoing Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods (ranging from 7.5% to 100%+ on specific categories) continued to create supply chain restructuring opportunities for Turkish manufacturers. U.S. importers seeking to diversify away from Chinese suppliers have increasingly looked to Turkey as an alternative source for textiles, chemicals, machinery, and industrial goods.

Trade Agreements Act (TAA) Compliance As noted in our government contracting coverage, Turkey's TAA-designated country status provides significant advantages for Turkish manufacturers seeking U.S. government contracts. This status remained unchanged in Q4 2025.

The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) continued to expand export control restrictions in Q4 2025, with particular focus on:

• Advanced semiconductor technology
• Artificial intelligence and quantum computing
• Dual-use items with military applications

Turkish companies exporting U.S.-origin technology or re-exporting controlled items must maintain robust Export Administration Regulations (EAR) compliance programs. The consequences of export control violations — criminal prosecution, debarment, and reputational damage — are severe.

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) maintained active review of foreign investments in U.S. businesses in Q4 2025. Key trends:

• Expanded jurisdiction over real estate transactions near sensitive government facilities
• Increased scrutiny of investments in AI, semiconductors, biotechnology, and critical infrastructure
• Mandatory filing requirements for certain covered transactions

Turkish investors acquiring U.S. businesses in sensitive sectors should conduct CFIUS risk assessments before signing definitive agreements.

The EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program continued to operate under the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 framework in Q4 2025:

• Minimum investment: $1,050,000 (standard); $800,000 (Targeted Employment Area — TEA)
• Regional Center Program: Reauthorized through the EB-5 Reform Act; continued to be the primary vehicle for passive investors
• Processing times: I-526E petition processing times remained elevated (18–36 months for most nationalities); Turkish nationals benefit from no visa backlog (Turkey is not oversubscribed)
• Set-aside visas: 20% of annual EB-5 visas reserved for rural projects; 10% for high unemployment areas; 2% for infrastructure projects

For Turkish investors: The absence of a visa backlog for Turkish nationals makes EB-5 a relatively efficient path to permanent residence compared to many other nationalities.

The E-2 Treaty Investor Visa remained available to Turkish nationals under the U.S.-Turkey Treaty of Commerce and Navigation. Key Q4 2025 developments:

• Consular processing times at U.S. Embassy Ankara remained elevated but improved from 2024 peaks
• USCIS adjudication of E-2 change-of-status applications continued at normal pace
• Minimum investment threshold guidance remained at "substantial" (no fixed minimum, but $100,000+ is generally considered substantial for most businesses)

The L-1 visa for intracompany transferees (executives, managers, and specialized knowledge workers) remained an important pathway for Turkish companies expanding to the U.S.:

• L-1A (executives/managers): 3-year initial period; renewable to 7 years; direct path to EB-1C green card
• L-1B (specialized knowledge): 3-year initial period; renewable to 5 years
• Blanket L petition: Available for Turkish companies with established U.S. operations; streamlines individual L-1 approvals

The H-1B cap lottery for FY2026 (beginning October 1, 2025) was conducted in March 2025. Turkish nationals selected in the lottery were able to begin employment on October 1, 2025. Key statistics:

• Registration cap: 85,000 (65,000 regular cap + 20,000 U.S. master's exemption)
• Registrations received: Significantly oversubscribed (multiple lottery rounds conducted)

Turkish companies sponsoring H-1B workers for FY2027 should register in the March 2026 lottery window.

The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) continued significant rulemaking activity in Q4 2025:

Investment Adviser AML Rule FinCEN finalized a rule requiring registered investment advisers (RIAs) and exempt reporting advisers (ERAs) to implement AML/CFT programs and file Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs). This rule, effective in 2026, has significant implications for Turkish family offices and investment entities with U.S. investment adviser registrations.

Real Estate AML Rule FinCEN proposed expanded anti-money laundering requirements for real estate transactions, building on existing Geographic Targeting Orders (GTOs). The proposed rule would require reporting of beneficial ownership information for all-cash real estate purchases above certain thresholds nationwide. Turkish buyers of U.S. real estate should monitor this rulemaking.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) maintained active enforcement in Q4 2025, with priorities including:

• Crypto assets — continued enforcement against unregistered securities offerings
• ESG disclosures — scrutiny of environmental, social, and governance claims
• Foreign private issuers — enhanced scrutiny of Turkish companies listed on U.S. exchanges or raising capital from U.S. investors
• Insider trading — cross-border cases involving foreign nationals

Turkish companies with U.S. capital market activities should ensure robust securities law compliance programs.

The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) enforcement remained active in Q4 2025. The DOJ and SEC continued to pursue cases involving bribery of foreign officials by U.S. companies and their foreign subsidiaries. Turkish subsidiaries of U.S. companies — and U.S. subsidiaries of Turkish companies — are subject to FCPA jurisdiction.

The expiration of TCJA provisions and ongoing Congressional debate over corporate tax rates create significant uncertainty for 2026 tax planning. Turkish companies with U.S. operations should:

• Model multiple tax scenarios (current rates, increased rates, TCJA extension)
• Accelerate income recognition or deductions where beneficial under current rates
• Review entity structure in light of potential rate changes
• Engage U.S. tax counsel for proactive planning

The U.S. trade policy environment is likely to remain volatile in 2026, with potential for:

• New or expanded tariffs on imports from various countries
• Continued Section 232 and Section 301 tariff activity
• Potential renegotiation of trade agreements
• Expanded export control restrictions

Turkish exporters to the U.S. and Turkish companies with U.S. supply chains should maintain flexible sourcing strategies and monitor tariff developments closely.

Immigration policy is expected to remain a contentious political issue in 2026. Turkish businesses relying on U.S. work visas for key personnel should:

• Maintain robust immigration compliance programs
• Plan for potential processing delays and policy changes
• Explore alternative visa pathways (E-2, L-1, O-1) as supplements to H-1B
• Consider U.S. permanent residence pathways for key employees

Turkey's strategic position — as a NATO member, a bridge between Europe and Asia, and a significant economic actor — creates both opportunities and complexities for Turkish-U.S. business:

• Defense and security cooperation: Ongoing U.S.-Turkey defense relationship creates procurement and technology transfer opportunities
• Energy transition: Turkey's role in energy transit and renewable energy development aligns with U.S. energy security priorities
• Regional dynamics: Turkish-U.S. business relationships are influenced by broader regional geopolitical developments

The regulatory environment for digital businesses is evolving rapidly in both the U.S. and Turkey:

• U.S. AI regulation: Federal and state-level AI governance frameworks are developing; Turkish tech companies with U.S. operations should monitor
• Data privacy: State-level privacy laws (California, Virginia, Colorado, etc.) continue to expand; federal privacy legislation remains pending
• Cybersecurity: SEC cybersecurity disclosure rules and CMMC requirements for defense contractors create new compliance obligations

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations are increasingly embedded in U.S. regulatory requirements:

• SEC climate disclosure rule: Requires public companies to disclose climate-related risks and greenhouse gas emissions
• Supply chain due diligence: U.S. importers face increasing scrutiny of supply chain labor and environmental practices (Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, etc.)
• Green financing: U.S. capital markets increasingly favor ESG-compliant issuers

For Turkish businesses with U.S. operations or U.S. market ambitions, 2026 demands proactive legal and regulatory planning across multiple fronts. The following priorities should be on every Turkish-U.S. business's agenda:

1. Tax planning: Model TCJA sunset scenarios; review transfer pricing; assess Pillar Two impact
2. BOI compliance: Confirm FinCEN beneficial ownership filings are current
3. Trade compliance: Audit tariff classifications; review supply chain for Section 232/301 exposure
4. Immigration planning: Secure H-1B registrations; explore alternative visa pathways
5. AML/compliance: Implement robust AML programs; prepare for expanded FinCEN requirements
6. CFIUS awareness: Screen U.S. acquisitions for CFIUS risk before signing
7. Digital compliance: Audit data privacy practices; assess AI governance needs
8. Dispute resolution: Review contract dispute resolution clauses; ensure New York Convention enforceability

The complexity of the Turkish-U.S. legal and regulatory environment rewards businesses that invest in proactive legal counsel. The cost of compliance is always less than the cost of non-compliance.

ULF New York looks forward to supporting Turkish businesses navigating the U.S. legal landscape in 2026 and beyond. Contact us to discuss your specific legal and regulatory priorities for the year ahead.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Legal and regulatory requirements are subject to change. Consult qualified U.S. legal counsel for advice specific to your situation.