The U.S. Department of Commerce published a preliminary determination on July 23, 2026 (scheduled for Federal Register publication July 24, 2026) finding that revoking the countervailing-duty (CVD) order on phosphate fertilizers from Morocco would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of countervailable subsidies. Commerce identified a 20.04% net countervailable subsidy rate for OCP S.A. — Morocco's state-owned phosphate and fertilizer company and the world's largest phosphate exporter — and applied the same rate to all other Moroccan producers and exporters.

The determination is preliminary. Interested parties may submit case briefs and request a hearing within 30 days after Federal Register publication. The determination will not become final until Commerce issues its final results following the comment period.

Countervailing-duty orders do not expire automatically. Under U.S. trade law, the International Trade Commission (ITC) and the Department of Commerce conduct sunset reviews every five years to determine whether revoking an order would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of subsidies (Commerce) and material injury to the domestic industry (ITC). If both agencies make affirmative determinations, the order continues for another five years.

The CVD order on phosphate fertilizers from Morocco has been in place since 2021, when Commerce and the ITC found that Moroccan phosphate fertilizers were subsidized and that imports materially injured the U.S. domestic fertilizer industry. The current proceeding is the first sunset review of that order.

Commerce's role in the sunset review is to determine whether subsidies would likely continue or recur if the order were revoked. Commerce's preliminary finding of a 20.04% subsidy rate for OCP S.A. reflects its assessment of the subsidy programs that OCP and the Moroccan government have maintained.

The ITC's role is separate — it will determine whether revocation would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of material injury to the domestic industry. The ITC's determination is not addressed in this preliminary Commerce finding.

OCP S.A. is the world's largest phosphate rock exporter and a major producer of phosphate-based fertilizers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and triple superphosphate (TSP). OCP is majority-owned by the Moroccan state and is a significant participant in global agricultural commodity markets.

The 20.04% subsidy rate reflects Commerce's assessment of the benefits OCP receives from Moroccan government programs, which may include preferential access to phosphate rock reserves, below-market energy pricing, government equity infusions, and other support measures. The specific subsidy programs and their rates will be detailed in Commerce's final determination.

U.S. importers of Moroccan phosphate fertilizers should not assume that the existing CVD order will expire following the sunset review. The preliminary affirmative determination by Commerce means that the order is likely to continue, and importers should plan accordingly:

• Cash deposit obligations. Importers of Moroccan phosphate fertilizers are currently required to post cash deposits at the CVD rate when entering merchandise. The preliminary determination confirms that this obligation is likely to continue.
• Final assessment exposure. Cash deposits are subject to adjustment in annual administrative reviews. Importers should track annual review proceedings and assess their exposure to final assessment rates that may differ from the cash deposit rate.
• Supply contract allocation. Supply contracts should clearly allocate cash deposit and final assessment exposure between the importer of record and the buyer. Contracts should include price adjustment provisions that address changes in CVD rates, and should specify which party bears the importer-of-record responsibility and associated customs obligations.

Agricultural input suppliers, distributors, and purchasers that rely on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers should incorporate continued trade-remedy costs into procurement forecasts:

• Procurement planning. The 20.04% CVD rate adds materially to the landed cost of Moroccan phosphate fertilizers. Procurement teams should model the continued CVD cost in supply chain planning and evaluate alternative supply sources.
• Contract terms. Long-term supply agreements should include provisions addressing changes in CVD rates, including price adjustment mechanisms, termination rights, and duty indemnification.
• Alternative sourcing. Buyers that have been relying on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers should assess alternative supply sources — including domestic production and imports from non-subject countries — as a hedge against continued or increased CVD exposure.

Food producers, processors, and retailers that purchase agricultural commodities grown with phosphate fertilizers should incorporate continued trade-remedy costs into procurement forecasts. Fertilizer costs are a component of agricultural production costs, and continued CVD exposure on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers may affect the cost and availability of domestic agricultural production.

Interested parties — including OCP S.A., U.S. domestic producers, importers, and downstream users — may submit case briefs and request a hearing within 30 days after Federal Register publication of the preliminary determination. Commerce will then issue its final determination following the comment period.

If Commerce's final determination is affirmative, the proceeding will move to the ITC for its sunset review determination. If both Commerce and the ITC make affirmative final determinations, the CVD order will continue for another five years.

Turkish companies in the agricultural, food, and fertilizer sectors should note the following:

Fertilizer procurement. Turkish agricultural companies with U.S. operations or U.S. supply chains that source phosphate fertilizers should assess whether their procurement includes Moroccan-origin product subject to the CVD order. If so, supply contracts should address CVD cost allocation and alternative sourcing.

Agricultural commodity supply chains. Turkish food companies that source U.S. agricultural commodities — grains, oilseeds, and other crops grown with phosphate fertilizers — should monitor the impact of continued CVD costs on U.S. agricultural production costs and commodity prices.

Trade remedy monitoring. Turkish companies active in U.S. agricultural markets should maintain a trade remedy monitoring program that tracks CVD and antidumping orders affecting their supply chains, including annual administrative reviews and sunset review proceedings.

ULF New York advises Turkish companies and investors on U.S. trade law, customs compliance, trade remedy proceedings, and cross-border supply chain structuring.